Major Turning Point for the Solar Industry! Policy Boosts Spark Market Surge – Price Shift Imminent!
2025-10-15
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Rumors are swirling about an upcoming new capacity regulation policy jointly drafted by six ministries including the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Ministry of Ecology and Environment. The rumored content includes:
Strict ban on new capacity expansion
Limits on operating rates for existing capacity across all production links
Multiple media outlets have confirmed this with authorities—the response? “Yes, it exists.”
Industry insiders from Tier-1 and Tier-2 manufacturers also verified the news, while executives at leading single-link companies say the official document is highly likely to be released soon.
Though no formal version has been publicly issued yet, the market has already priced in the expectation.
Another game-changing rumor: a multi-billion-yuan polysilicon industry consolidation platform could be finalized this month.
Last weekend, market chatter claimed the platform company would register on Wednesday, briefly pushing up polysilicon futures prices before they pulled back.
According to a Nanhua Futures research report, the platform is expected to be officially established by mid-October. An industry自媒体 recently reported that the company is imminent, with approval processes underway—and critically, a joint management account may already be set up.
The goal? To potentially remove up to 1 million metric tons of outdated polysilicon capacity from the market.
To combat destructive price wars ("internal competition"), regulators have rolled out a series of measures:
July: Inter-ministerial coordination launched anti-cutthroat competition initiatives
July 24: Draft amendments to the Price Law published—targeting predatory pricing and unfair competition
August 1: MIIT issued a special energy supervision list covering 41 polysilicon producers nationwide (including all major players in Xinjiang, Sichuan, Yunnan, etc.)
October 9: NDRC & SAMR released a joint announcement on curbing price chaos, emphasizing no bidding below cost and promoting fair market order
These actions signal a clear shift toward regulated, healthy competition—paving the way for price stabilization and industry recovery.
Despite strong policy support, the industry still faces weak demand:
April–May: Soaring installations due to project rush
May peak: 92.92 GW added (up 388% YoY)—an all-time high
But then sharp declines:
June: 14.36 GW (↓84.55% MoM)
July: ~11 GW (↓47.7% YoY, lowest since 2025)
August: 7.36 GW (↓55.29% YoY, ↓33.33% MoM)
With local feed-in tariff auction rules still pending, renewable investment remains sluggish.
As one industry veteran pointed out:
"Using market-driven and rule-of-law methods to phase out backward capacity essentially means relying on rational competition—not just waiting for government directives. The industry must reflect—anti-cutthroat competition shouldn't depend solely on policies."
With policy clarity improving and supply-side reforms accelerating, a turning point is near. Goldman Sachs recently noted polysilicon prices have rebounded from 30 RMB/kg to 45–50 RMB/kg, with leading firms returning to profitability.
At SMUXI, we’re building a global PV warehouse network, offering:
When do you think PV prices will truly stabilize? Can policy alone fix overcapacity? Share your thoughts in the comments!
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